China Merchants Securities: After the development fund is downgraded, who of the three airlines has the most profit?

China Merchants Securities: After the development fund is downgraded, who of the three airlines has the most profit?

(1) Introduction of the Civil Aviation Development Fund: The Civil Aviation Development 上海夜网论坛 Fund is a government fund in nature, and the revenue is turned over to the central treasury, which is included in the government fund budget, and is used for special purposes.
The scope of use includes the construction of civil aviation infrastructure; subsidies for cargo aviation, regional aviation, and small and medium-sized civil transport airports; energy conservation and emission reduction of civil aviation; general aviation development; science and education, information research and development, and application of civil aviation; building of safety capabilities and airworthiness certification capabilities;Expenditure, collection of commission fees and other seven aspects.
  Specific collection regulations: The Civil Aviation Development Fund began to collect from April 1, 2012. It was established to replace the airport construction fee originally imposed on passengers and the civil aviation infrastructure construction fund imposed on airlines.
The levy on airlines is based on flight route classification, aircraft maximum take-off weight, flight mileage and other standards; the passenger levy is in principle based on the standard of 50 yuan per person for domestic routes and 90 yuan per person for international / regional routes.
The civil aviation development fund payable by air passengers shall be collected by the airline or sales agency when the passenger purchases the air ticket, and the clearing center shall be responsible for the collection and full payment to the central treasury.
  (2)三大航预计净利润增厚8-11亿元  由上文可知,当前各航司被征收的民航发展基金被计入公司费用,而代为征收的民航发展基金(由旅客缴纳的)Do not enter the table.
Therefore, the halving of the levy of the Civil Aviation Development Fund on the one hand directly reduces the costs of airline companies and increases profits; on the other hand, if the levy standard is also reduced at the passenger level, it will indirectly reduce the fares paid by passengers (due to the levy on behalf ofWill not enter the table, so in fact the airline’s revenue will not be affected), stimulate the demand for aviation travel, the airline’s profits are thickened or hyperstatic measurement.
  At present, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines ‘civil aviation development funds account for about 55% -65% of pre-tax profits, while Spring and Autumn and Auspicious account for about 17%.
According to the disclosure of listed companies, taking 2018 as an example, the expenses of China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines Development Fund were 29.
400 million yuan, 22.
3.5 billion yuan, accounting for 65.5% of pre-tax profit
52%, 57.
We estimate that the cost of the Air China Civil Aviation Development Fund will be about 2.5 billion yuan, accounting for about 25% of the pre-tax profit.
The expenses for the Spring and Autumn 2017 and Auspicious Civil Aviation Development Fund were 2.
9.2 billion yuan, 3.
1.5 billion yuan, accounting for 17.7% of profit
69% and 17.
  With the civil aviation development fund fee falling by 50%, it is expected that the profit before taxation of China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China will increase by 14.
700 million yuan, 11.
1.8 billion yuan, 12.
500 million yuan, thickened by 1.
4.6 billion yuan, 1.
5.8 billion yuan.
Taking into account the impact of income tax, the net profit of the three major airlines after tax increase is about 8-11 billion yuan, and the spring and autumn & auspicious is about 100 million yuan.
  In general, the three factors of aviation are currently resonating forward, welcoming excellent investment opportunities.
1) Civil aviation supply-side reforms superimposed the impact of the 737max air disaster on continued fermentation (new problems in the internal testing of the Boeing 737MAX repair patch), and aviation supply continued to tighten; in the second and third quarters of the season, the marketization reform of superimposed fares has continued to release aviation demand.
2) The fundamental center of oil prices in 19 years is between 50-70 US dollars, which is expected to be less than 18 years.
3) With the slowing pace of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the US dollar index has fallen; trade conflicts have been suspended, market liberalization has increased capital inflows, and the risk of RMB depreciation in 19 years has been reduced.
The latest catalyst: the civil aviation development fund halves the collection, the three major airlines in 19 years are expected to add about 1 billion yuan in profit, combined with our previous expectations, the three major airlines in 19 years profit is expected to reach 9-11 billion yuan (previous forecast profit of about 80-100100 million yuan), the stock price still has room to double.
  Risk warnings The policy implementation was not as good as expected, oil prices rose sharply, and the yuan depreciated sharply.

Topbon (002139): Be the industry leader and embrace the intelligent era

Topbon (002139): Be the industry leader and embrace the intelligent era

Leading company in intelligent controllers with steady growth in performance1. Leading intelligent controllers in the industry for more than 20 years.

The company is a global leader in the intelligent controller industry. Intelligent controllers, DC brushless motors and drivers are widely used in households, power tools, industrial, medical and other fields, and they are sold in dozens of countries around the world.

Revenue in 2018 was 34.

7.0 billion, net profit attributable to mother 2.

2.2 billion.

Since the listing, the compound strength of revenue has reached 19.

8%, the net profit composite intensity reached 23.


2. Equity incentives show confidence.

The company’s launch of the fair incentive plan in 2018 demonstrates the company’s confidence in the future development prospects, and will fully mobilize the leadership of the company to promote 武汉夜生活网 the stable and sustainable development of the company’s business.

The era of the intelligent IoT is reshaping the controller industry. The industry trend is expected to develop large market capitalization companies1. The controller application scenario in the era of the Internet of Things is expected to expand.

With the development of the Internet of Things-related industries, the demand for intelligent controllers will expand, and the technical requirements for intelligent controllers will also increase significantly.

At the same time, there is still a gap between the penetration rate of smart homes in Europe and the United States during the year, and there is significant room for improvement in the future; 2. Product added value continues to increase.

As people ‘s requirements for quality of life increase, controller 佛山桑拿网 products become more complex and intelligent, and the added value continues to increase. The company’s average product price has increased from 21 yuan to 30 yuan;As a result of the trend of strong and strong, certain corporate mergers and profit expectations are rising.

The company will enter the growth rate and estimated double-rising cycle1, convertible bond issuance to resolve capacity changes.

The company completed the issuance of convertible bonds in March and raised 5.

US $ 7.3 billion for the construction of an operation center in East China. After completion, it will add 45 million sets of intelligent controllers to serve the Yangtze River Delta customer base, resolve the company’s capacity increase, and improve its internal layout.

2. R & D promotion promotes product upgrades.

The company’s R & D expenses accounted for more than 7% of revenue, and the existing R & D staff exceeded 900 to promote product upgrades.

3. “T-SMART” preempts the league road.

The company released “T-SMART” in 2017, which shifted from a simple controller product to a one-stop smart home appliance solution to enhance the added value of the product and strengthen its core competitiveness.

Real estate completion is expected to pick up and the consumption promotion policy is expected, the home appliance industry is expected to pick up in 2019; at the same time, the price of electronic components such as capacitors will be reduced, which will help the company’s gross margin to improve.

Revenue maintained a high growth rate. With the optimization of product structure, the company expected to increase.

Earnings forecast and investment strategy are expected to be 0 for 2019-2021.

33, 0.

45 and 0.

60 yuan, the corresponding PE is 19 times, 14 times and 11 times.

The company’s lowest PE value and expected in the past three years are 16 times and 41 times, respectively.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; capacity expansion is less than expected.

Livzon Group (000513) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Deducting Non-Growth Exceeding Expectations, Paying Attention to Expected Growth & Structural Adjustment

Livzon Group (000513) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Deducting Non-Growth Exceeding Expectations, Paying Attention to Expected Growth & Structural Adjustment

Event: Livzon Group issued the 2019 third quarter report, and the company achieved operating income of 72 in the first three quarters.

9.5 billion, an annual increase of 6.

63%; net profit attributable to mother 10.

40 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

61%; deduct non-net profit 9.

570,000 yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.

33%, achieving an EPS of 1.

11 yuan.

  The company’s Q3 2019 operating income23.

56 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

47%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

01 billion, an annual increase of -1.

91%; non-net profit attributable to mother 2.

99 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

10%; EPS 0 achieved.

32 yuan.

  Viewpoint: Depreciation of non-profits exceeds expectations, continuous focus, efficiency improvement, and transformation.

In 北京夜生活网 the first three quarters, the company’s non-performance growth rate exceeded expectations, and Q3’s single quarter performance was dazzling.

Among them, the growth rate of second-line breeds continued to be high, R & D continued to be highly invested, and the effects of Shenqi Fuzheng and rat nerve growth factors were gradually transformed.

  High R & D investment: R & D expenses in the first three quarters4.

8.2 billion (37.

59%), the efficiency of the company’s research and development has been significantly improved.

Among the key types of promotion are IL-6R (biosimilars, which have already started Phase III in the third quarter, and progress is the first), HER2 (Phase I completed), and PD-1 (Simultaneous clinical research in China and the United States, Phase I completed).

  High growth of key varieties: sales of key and key varieties, continued strength.

The first three quarters of the ilaprazole series.

5.4 billion (67.

26%), of which enteric-coated tablets 6.

7.9 billion (+53.

56%), under this volume, there can be more than 50% growth, reflecting the company’s sales ability.

Three dimension (23.

48%), Delo series (35.

24%), leuprolide (24.%)

67%) and other varieties performed equally well.

The two new products of spirit line, fluvoxamine and tubular ropirone, have a growth rate of 21 respectively.

77%, 39.


  Adjustment of the structure of the drug substance: The company’s drug substance segment adjusted resources, adjusted the product structure, and strengthened international certification. The key varieties continued to grow at a high speed and profitability was gradually improved.

Among them mevastatin (38.13%), phenylalanine (20.

31%) and other varieties have grown rapidly.

  We can polish and adjust the company’s sales focus, improve efficiency, and continue to focus on key varieties.

  We think that when looking at Livzon’s report, we should not only focus on the overall apparent revenue growth rate, but we should also see the structural changes in it.

For example, the sales of low-margin varieties of raw materials have stopped, and the high-margin varieties have grown rapidly. Although the apparently only one-digit growth rate of the raw material medicine segment, the profitability has actually improved.

The spirit line is a special specialty line of the new pioneers, and the tubular ropilon’s new entry into medical insurance deserves attention.

  Looking forward to 2019, we judge that there will be some pressure in 2019. However, we believe that the company’s revenue structure is continuously changing. This year, citing the displacement of Senator Fuzheng and Mouse Nerve Growth Factor, in fact, the company’s other businesses are growing faster, and the gradual impact next year will be further weakened.
Based on the company’s outstanding leaders, sales team, monoclonal antibody platform, microsphere platform, etc., the company’s long-term investment value is outstanding.

  Investment suggestion: It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021 will be 12 respectively.

4.1 billion, 14.

3.3 billion, 16.

3 billion, with growth rates of 14 respectively.

7%, 15.

5%, 13.

8%, corresponding PE is 21x, 18x, 16x.

(The actual internal growth after the replacement incentive amortization is higher, and the replacement is predicted after deducting cash).

  We believe that the company’s performance growth rate is high certainty, expected earnings, and the long-term layout of biopharmaceuticals + microspheres is in line with the industry direction.

We are optimistic about the company’s development We are optimistic about the company’s long-term development and maintain a “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: The sales volume of Shenqi Fuzheng is reduced, and the risk of monoclonal antibody research and development.

Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262) 2019 First Quarterly Report Commentary: Performance Meets Expected Distribution Incentive Expenses Suppressing Profit Release

Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262) 2019 First Quarterly Report Commentary: Performance Meets Expected Distribution Incentive Expenses Suppressing Profit Release

The company’s performance is in line with expectations. It is expected that the industry will achieve 20% -25% growth. Among them, remifentanil, Ari catheter, and duloxetine maintain high growth, and the commercial sector has picked up.

New product research and development is expected to guarantee 2 and 4 in 2019, and the consistency evaluation is progressing smoothly.

Equity incentive expenses dragged down performance, and operating cash flow achieved high growth.

The company’s performance is in line with market expectations.

The company’s 2019Q1 revenue, net profit, deducting non-net profit10.

4.9 billion, 1.

26 billion, 1.

26 trillion, +13 for ten years.

31%, +23.

63%, +23.

93%, performance in line with market expectations.

Remifentanil, aripiprazole, and duloxetine maintained high growth, and the commercial sector rebounded.

It is expected that the industrial sector will achieve 20% -25% growth.

By segment, the growth rate of anesthesia business is expected to be 22% -23%, of which Youmei, Liyuexi, Forli, Remifentanil achieve 33% -35%, 18% -20%, 18%, 80%Growth, although the execution growth of dextromethacin procurement has improved, it is expected to maintain a continuous growth of more than 30%; it is expected that the spiritual business will achieve an increase of about 18% -20%, of which ariconazole and duloxetine achieve100%, over 50% growth, risperidone, ziprasidone, and buspirone achieve about 5% growth; neurological business is expected to achieve close to 30% growth; API business performance is expected to achieve about 10%, mainly due to environmental protectionCheck and other factors.

The commercial sector has picked up, with single-digit growth expected in the first quarter of 2019.

New product research and development is expected to guarantee 2 and 4 in 2019, and the consistency evaluation is progressing smoothly.

The company’s R & D investment in 2019Q1 was 40.26 million yuan, +16 a year.

82%, the research and development work is going smoothly. New products are expected to be guaranteed 2 (pentaquine, sufentanil) and 4 (dezocin, oxycodone) in 2019. In terms of consistency evaluation, risperidone tablets have wonApproved, dexmedetomidine, clonazepam, risperidone sustained-release tablets, olanzapine has been declared, and the consistency evaluation of 19 core varieties has been completed by the end of 2020.

In addition, the company will increase international cooperation in the research and development of innovative drugs, and it is expected to date innovative drug products in overseas clinical stages.

Equity incentive expenses dragged down performance, and operating cash flow achieved high growth.
Corporate finance, management (including R & D), and sales expense ratio -0.

33%, +8.

25%, +33.

31%, ten years +0.

26, +0.

88, +1.

10PCTs, of which management, the increase in sales expense ratio is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of industry and the impact of equity amortization costs 北京夜网 (expected to be about 10 million yuan in 2019Q1, mainly confirmed as management costs).Profit growth will exceed 30%.

Net operating cash flow of the company 1.

46 trillion, ten years +68.

07%, mainly due to the company’s increased efforts to collect funds.

Risk factors: the risk of drug price reduction or out-of-standard due to volume procurement; the progress of research and development is lower than expected.

Investment suggestion: The company’s core varieties are growing rapidly, and the first-class anesthesia and other businesses are not affected by the volume purchase. The research varieties are gradually listed, and the EPS forecast for 2019-2021 is maintained at 0.



95 yuan, with reference to comparable companies estimated to give the company 25XPE in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 16.

00 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Wuliangye (000858): The price and price of the general five prices continue to increase and the growth of the marketing channel reform continues to promote growth

Wuliangye (000858): The price and price of the general five prices continue to increase and the growth of the marketing channel reform continues to promote growth

Event revenue and profits continued to increase, and the interim report results were in line with expectations.

The company announced its 2019 Interim Report, which achieved revenue of 271 in 19H1.

51 trillion, an increase of 26.

75%, realized net profit attributable to mother 93.

3.6 billion, an increase of 31.

3%, corresponding to EPS2.

40 yuan / share.

19Q2 achieved revenue of 95.

61 trillion, with an increase of 27.

08%, net profit of return to mother 28.

61 trillion, with an increase of 33.


Both Q2’s revenue and profit continued Q1’s high growth trend. In the first half of the year, the company completed 54% of this task and achieved growth.

Core Views Both the volume and price of core products rose, and channel marketing promoted development.

In the first half of the year, the company’s liquor revenue increased by 25 per year.

5% to 254.

1.9 billion.

In terms of volume and price, the company, as a representative of high-end wines, is expected to continue to enjoy the consumption upgrade bonus. Under the industry’s squeezed growth trend, it has managed to increase its brand through channel sinks and continue to gain market share; the eighth-generation Wuliangye, which was launched in June, has an ex-factory price of 889 Yuan, an increase of 12 over the seventh generation.

7%, Xinpu five circulation price, retail price stands at more than 1,000 yuan, channel profit is reasonable, distributors are actively stocking.

In terms of products, the company’s strategic fulcrum products are full, forming a complete product matrix, at the same time speeding up the cleaning of a series of wine SKUs, focusing on high-end and core single products, and promoting structural upgrades.

From the perspective of channels, the company adheres to the “preliminary segmentation and horizontal specialization”, which will become 7 marketing centers into 21 marketing war zones and 60 marketing bases.

At present, the number of Wuliangye operators nationwide has grown to 767, with 1,372 specialty stores, 247 KA, e-commerce, and other group purchase customers. The total number of merchants has approached 2,400. The company’s ability to provide accurate services to terminals and consumers has been further enhanced.

In terms of advance receipts, after the dealers made initial payments, they switched to Q2 issuance confirmation revenue. At the end of the second quarter, advance receipts decreased by 4 from the previous quarter.

99 ppm to 43.

5.4 billion.

During the increase in gross profit margin, the expense ratio fell and profitability increased 深圳桑拿网 steadily.

In the first half of the year, the company’s gross profit margin increased by a maximum of 0.

97pct to 73.

81%, of which liquor gross profit margin increased by 1.

63pct to 78.

16%, mainly due to the price adjustment of the eighth generation of Pu Wu and the collector’s edition, the proportion of Pu Wu increased, the series of wine bar code cleaning.

Under the high income growth and dilution, the sales expense ratio decreased by 0 year-on-year.

30 minutes to 9.

76%, the management expense rate dropped by 0.

72 points to 4.

80%, net interest rate increased by 1.

28 points to 36.

12%. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations Taking into account the rapid volume increase of the Fifth Five-Year Plan and the increase in the price of the eighth-generation Wuliangye, we have raised our income and gross profit margin forecasts and lowered our period expense forecast.

The adjusted forecast is that the company’s expected earnings for 19-21 are 4 respectively.

62, 5.

77, 7.

17 yuan (the original forecast for 19-21 was 4).

37, 5.

26, 6.

19 yuan).

With reference to comparable companies, the company was given 31 times PE in 19 years, corresponding to a target price of 143.

22 yuan, maintain Buy rating . Risk reminds channel profit weakening risk, price is lower than expected risk.

Northern Huachuang (002371): Revenue maintains rapid growth and net profit attributable to mother is slightly lower than expected

Northern Huachuang (002371): Revenue maintains rapid growth and net profit attributable to mother is slightly lower than expected

Event: North China Huachuang released the 2018 performance report, reporting that the two companies achieved operating income33.

200 million yuan, an increase of 49 over the same period last year.

36%; expected net profit attributable to mother 2.

3.1 billion, an increase of 84 in ten years.


The net profit attributable to mothers falls in the Air Force’s Third Quarterly Guideline 2.


Within the 7.6 billion range.

Opinion: Revenue has maintained a rapid growth trend, and long-term return to net profit is slightly lower than expected.

In terms of business segments, the main business income of electronic process equipment was 25.

170,000 yuan, an increase of 75 over the same period last year.

42%; main business income of electronic components7.

88 ppm, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.

twenty three%.

Driven by the downstream photovoltaic / semiconductor industry, it shows that revenue has grown significantly.

Operating profit for 2018 was 3.

320,000 yuan, an increase of 68 over 2017.

90%, the first is that while the company’s revenue has increased, costs and expenses have been effectively controlled, so the company’s operating profit has increased from the previous year.

The company realized net profit 杭州夜网 attributable to mother 2.

31 trillion, slightly lower than market consensus2.


As a leading company in conventional semiconductor equipment, the company ranks first in terms of technology accumulation and market influence. The company’s core growth logic will strive for verification one by one in the next few years.

The company grasps the growth dividend under the two major trends of advanced process technology reorganization and industrial transfer.

In terms of advanced process technology reorganization, according to the statistics of applied materials: NAND shifted from planar technology to 3D, the intensity of capital investment increased by 60%; DRAM shifted from 25nm to 14 / 16nm, the intensity of capital occupation increased by 40%; foundryMoving from 28nm to 7nm increases the intensity of capital occupation by 100%.

Similarly, AMAT believes that during 南京龙凤网 this round of technology alternation, the types of equipment that are growing at a faster rate include etching / ALD.

From the perspective of technical lines, Northern Huachuang has grasped the most core grasping hands, which is in line with the development route of advanced process technology.

The shift in industry trends made in China has not changed, and capital expenditures for domestic wafer fab construction are independent of the rise and fall of the global downstream boom.

Under the expectation that the global semiconductor will face a downward revision, we remind investors to pay attention to structural changes in demand.

We see that the company has benefited from domestic alternative logic for downstream capital expansion in the pan-semiconductor field, and the equipment growth logic for domestic wafer lines is independent of the global semiconductor industry cycle. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the company’s short-, medium- and long-term growth momentum in the semiconductor sector.

In 2019, we expect that SMIC / Huali Micro / Changjiang Storage / Hefei Ruili and other advanced process production lines will be put into production one after another. Northern Huachuang’s orders in the field of integrated circuit equipment will continue to increase.

We are outstanding. North China Huachuang is the first choice for the equipment industry with the most flexibility in this semiconductor marginal change. In the long term, it is expected to accompany the rise of domestic wafer lines in the long run.Orders, adjust the company’s EPS for 2018-2020 from 0.

56, 0.

92, 1.

42 yuan / share to 0.


76, 1.

29 yuan / share.

Risk warning: The company’s orders are less than expected, and the domestic wafer fab construction exceeds expectations.

Feichi Environmental Protection (831846): Rising labor cost of raw materials affects net profit. Cleaning service end has become a new focus

Feichi Environmental Protection (831846): Rising labor cost of raw materials affects net profit. Cleaning service end has become a new focus
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report, and realized total operating income in 20181.37 ppm, an increase of 29 last year.22%; net profit is 1374.540,000 yuan, down 14 every year last year.61%. Due to the impact of rising raw materials and labor costs, net profit14.61%:公司在水域面清洁船制造领域深耕多年,继续加大对产品的研发推广,并增加销售人员不断开拓市场,寻找新的客户,进一步扩大了各系列产品的市场占有率,2018年 年Revenue growth 29.22%, net cash flow is 1579.650,000 yuan, an increase of 17.05 million yuan each year.Among them, the company’s 2018 net profit declined. First, the continuous increase in raw material prices and labor costs led to an increase in operating costs compared to 2017. The gross profit margin in 2018 was 34.99%, a decline of 9 per year.34 points. R & D supplements have continued to increase and new products have been launched: On November 22, 2018, the FCCZ series of surface cleaning boats and FCZD series of surface cleaning boats replaced new products and obtained the Jiangsu Provincial Economic and Information Commission’s Jiangsu New Product Identification and Acceptance Receipt.Jianzi[2018]No. 556 and Su Jingxin Jianzi[2018]557; The company’s R & D expenses in 2018 increased by 28 compared with 2017.88%, mainly because the company continued to expand investment in product research and development.In 2018, new types of vessels, such as a 25-meter offshore oil and sewage collection vessel, were newly developed to better meet the needs of the market.At present, the main customers include water conservancy, environmental protection, hydropower stations and other management departments and subordinate units in more than 20 provinces and cities across the country, thereby providing integrated solutions for salvage, water grass and salvage treatment of water waste. The new plant is completed, and the new capacity is continuously released: The company’s water surface environmental protection and clean special ship production base project officially started in May 2017, and the infrastructure has been partially completed.The newly-built plant has reached the expected state of use, and a total of 28.85 million yuan was transferred from the project under construction to the fixed assets account.With the specific implementation of the “Water Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” by various local governments and water area management units, the market demand for surface cleaning vessels for efficient mechanized cleaning of various water areas is being released one after another.The new plant is expected to meet the growing market demand and improve the company’s future performance. Revenue from the cleaning service is gradually emerging, and it is expected to become a new performance point in the future: the company established a subsidiary, Green Airlines Cleaning in 2017, to carry out cleaning service business. At present, the related business is on the right track.Began operation, supplemented cleaning service fee 712 in 2018.97 thousand yuan.In the future, the server is 深圳桑拿网 expected to become an important aspect of the company’s performance. Investment suggestion: We are optimistic about the positioning of the company’s “equipment-side + server-side” integrated water environment governor. It is expected that the company’s return to net profit growth from 2019 to 2021 will be 50.5%, 48.5% and 38.4%; City surplus budget 4.5 times / 3.1X / 2.2 times to maintain the overweight-B investment rating risk warning: risk of policy changes; industry competition risk; operational management risk

Vanke A (000002): Accelerated performance and land acquisition to improve ownership

Vanke A (000002): Accelerated performance and land acquisition to improve ownership

Event: The company announced its 2019 Interim Report and achieved operating income of 1393.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

5%; net profit to mother 118.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.


Opinion: Sales are steadily increasing, and land acquisition intensity is weakening.

The company achieved sales of 3340 in the first half of the year.

0 ppm, an increase of 9 per year.

6%; market share reached 4.

72%, an increase of 0.

7 units.

The development of the central and western regions is rapid, and Shanghai’s regional advantages are consolidated.

In the first half of the year, the planned construction area for new projects was 1372.

80,000 square meters, down 33 before.

0%, equity ratio from 53 last year.

2% increased to 68.


The land sales ratio dropped to 19.

5% (amount), 43.

8% (area), a decrease of 2 from last year.

8, 17.

9 units.

The significant increase in the settlement amount and the increase in investment income have promoted performance growth, and the increase in turnover has promoted the growth of ROE.

In the first half of the year, the increase in revenue and net profit attributable to mothers increased respectively from the previous year.


4 units.

Profitability is solid, with gross and net profit margins of 36 in the first half.

5% and 13.

8%, an increase of 1 苏州桑拿网 each year.

8, 1.

1 unit.

Three rates total 8.

33%, an increase of 0 from 2018.

2 quantity, overall controllable.

The ROE for the first half of the year was 7.

35%, a year-on-year increase of 0.

The six single ones mainly benefited from the increase in asset turnover.

The interest rate defect rate decreased, and the company maintained more redundant cash flow.In the first half of the year, the company refused 2253 with interest.

2 trillion, a year down 0.

7%; interest-bearing debt recovery 14.

3%, down 2 from last year.

8 units.

The net impurity content is 35%, which is far below the industry average.

The company holds 1438 of monetary funds.

700 million, a decline of 9 per year.

8%; operating net cash flow 88.

500 million US dollars, the proportion of negative to positive from the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in sales receipts.

Profit forecast and investment advice: Focus on the basic market, actively expand the diversified business on the real estate chain, and form the basis for a broad and comprehensive development in the future.

We estimate that the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 will be 4144.

200 million, 5102.

300 million, 6114.

200 million; net profit attributable to mothers was 409.

0 ppm, 486.

500 million, 573.

8 ppm; corresponding EPS is 3.

70 yuan, 4.

41 yuan, 5.

20 yuan.

The current corresponding PEs are 7, respectively.

4X / 6.

2X / 5.

3 times.

Taking into account the company’s fundamentals, the company is given 9 times PE, with a reasonable value of 33.

30 yuan.

Maintain the “Highly Recommended” rating.

Risk Warning: Sales and settlements are less than expected; real estate expectations are tightened more than expected; financing continues to tighten; interest rates rise; RMB depreciates

Little Swan A (000418) Annual Report Comment: Focus on Product Enhancement, Optimistic about Structural Upgrade

Little Swan A (000418) Annual Report Comment: Focus on Product Enhancement, Optimistic about Structural Upgrade

The washing machine business grew steadily and maintained a “Buy” rating. On March 29, 2019, the company disclosed its 2018 annual report and actually realized a total operating income of 236.

37 trillion, ten years +10.

53%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 18.

62 ppm, +23 a year.


At the same time, the company does not make profit distribution in 2018, does not send bonus shares, and does not use public reserve funds to increase its share capital.

The merger of the company and Midea Group has been approved by the CSRC. After the merger, the company will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Midea Group. At the same time, the company’s previously announced profit distribution plan will pay a 苏州桑拿网 cash dividend of RMB 40 per 10 shares (including tax)).

Considering only the company’s original business, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 3.

38, 3.

91, 4.

58 yuan, maintaining the company’s “Buy” rating.

The washing machine products maintained a competitive advantage, and the growth rate of the leading industry companies in 2018 was 236.

37 trillion, ten years +10.


Among them, 2018Q4 company achieved operating income62.

20 trillion, ten years +15.


Initial washing machine business achieved revenue of 216.

93 trillion, ten years +11.

42% (Aowei Cloud Network data, 2018 washing machine industry retail sales of 745 ppm, +3 per year.

7%), and other businesses realized income 19.

44 trillion, +1 a year.


The growth rate of the washing machine industry is slowing down. The company’s domestic sales strengthen the multi-brand level, consolidating the advantages of cost-effective products, and at the same time improving the domestic product structure, domestic sales revenue 187.

40 trillion, ten years +9.


In terms of overseas business, the company leveraged the Group’s Toshiba white electricity business to strengthen overseas competition. At the same time, changes in the RMB exchange rate increased the company’s export advantage, and the company’s internal export revenue48.

97 ppm, ten years +14.


Product structure optimization, sales and R & D expense ratios have increased significantly. Although the company’s raw material prices are operating at a high level, the company’s product structure has been optimized, and the company’s output gross margin has reached 26.

20%, ten years +0.

94 units.

Among them, the gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 26.

23%, ten years +1.

97 averages.

Among them, the gross profit margin of washing machine products was 28.

16%, ten years +1.

14 units.In terms of expense ratio, in 2018, the company increased the speed of channels dedicated to product launch, enhanced the promotion of high-end brand Beverly, and the sales expense ratio reached 14.

18%, ten years +0.

75 units.

It is expected that the subsequent sales expense ratio will continue to rise.

Marketing, company management and R & D expenses that are subject to increased R & D expenses4.

15%, ten years +0.

46 units.

In the product replacement cycle, expenses may remain at a high level. In summary, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2018 was 18.

62 ppm, +23 a year.


Among them, in the fourth quarter of 2018, due to the increase in gross profit elongation, the company achieved net profit attributable to mothers5.

1.5 billion, +41 a year.


We believe that traditional washing machine products are close to saturation. Although there is still some room for drum products in the future product update path, consumer demand has gradually changed, and the proportion of emerging categories such as washer-dryers and clothes dryers has increased.

Therefore, we expect the company to continue to increase investment in research and development and maintain technological innovation. At the same time, it may continue to increase its promotion of mid- to high-end brands.

Group development is expected to maintain relatively high growth in the washing machine business. We believe that the company is expected to expand the promotion of mid-to-high brands and products, or to drive optimization of product structure and increase in gross profit margin. However, it also faces increasing pressure on sales expenses and research and development expenses.The EPS for 2019-2021 is 3.

38, 3.

91, 4.

58 yuan (value 3 before 19-20).

28, 3.

88 yuan), referring to comparable companies’ 2019 PE forecast of 20.

69x, recognition given to the company 20 in 2019.

0 -21.

0x PE, corresponding to the target price of 67.


98 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: competition in the washing machine industry is intensifying.

Unfavorable price fluctuations of raw materials, etc.

China Jiaotong (601800): The overall performance is stable and better, and orders in hand are charged for future development

China Jiaotong (601800): The overall performance is stable and better, and orders in hand are charged for future development

The company recently announced its 2018 annual report, which reported a consolidated operating income of 4,908.

7.2 billion, an increase of 1.

67%; net profit attributable to mother was 196.

800 million, an increase of -4.


The opinions are as follows: The new short-term order scale is stable, and the company may increase the amount of new infrastructure construction business in 2018 to 7,709 in the coming year.

9.4 billion, an increase of -1.

54%, infrastructure design business amounted to 490.

8.7 billion, an increase of 30.

8%, the cumulative amount of new contracts signed in 2018 was 8908.

7.3 billion, an increase of 1.

At 12%, the trend remained stable.

The value of newly signed contracts in overseas areas is 1590.

1.3 billion, accounting for about 18% of the company’s newly signed contracts, a decrease of 25 per year.

98%. If the impact of Malaysia’s East Coast Railway project is rejected, it will increase by 12.


The third quarter of 2018 saw a single increase of -3.

99%, up -1 in the fourth quarter.

02%, slightly improved.

Affected by the comprehensive inventory of PPP projects, the contract value of the PPP model in the newly signed contracts was 1,523.

2.5 billion, accounting for 17% of the value of newly signed contracts, an increase of -18.


As of the end of 2018, the amount of unfinished contracts under execution by the company was 16,897.

3.8 billion, which is 3% of revenue in 2018.

Four times, the company plans to increase the amount of new contracts signed in 2019 by no less than 8%, or to accumulate the company’s future performance growth.

The revenue was stable, and the proportion of PPP project revenue increased by 4,908 in 2018.

7.2 billion, an annual increase of 6.

49% (2017 base digital attenuation of Zhenhua Heavy Industries business data), of which infrastructure construction increased by 5.

34%, mainly due to the PPP investment projects, the infrastructure design increased by 17.

03%, mainly due to the contribution of large-scale comprehensive projects.

Of which overseas income was 953.

7.5 billion, an increase of -10.

64%, accounting for about 19% of the group’s revenue.

In 2018, the number of joint ventures and associates related to the PPP project production of the company increased from about 49 at the end of 2017 to about 62, and related transaction income was about 255.

2.3 billion, accounting for 5 of the company’s 2018 revenue.

2%, about 2 last year.

3% increased.

Gross profit margin in 2018 13.49%, a decrease of 0 every year.

31 averages, basically stable.

The company’s operating goals for 2019 are that the operating income will exceed the growth rate by no more than 10%, and the revenue growth rate may increase in the next year.

The period expense ratio decreased slightly, and the operating cash flow reduced the company’s period expense ratio7.

93%, down by 0 over the same period.

54 units, of which the sales expense ratio is 0.

24%, rising by 0 every year.

05 per share (net of Zhenhua Heavy Industries data, the same below); management expense ratio 4.

32%, rising by 0 every year.

17 units; R & D expense ratio 2.

04%, rising by 0 every year.

33 single items, mainly due to the increase in newly started projects leading to increased R & D projects; financial expenses reorganization1.

33%, 杭州夜生活网 a decrease of 0 per year.

The 59 single items were mainly due to the realization of exchange gains and the adjustment of relevant discount interest rates based on the new income standard.

Asset impairment losses in 201827.

9.3 billion, down 50 previously.

95%, bad debt losses have been significantly reduced compared to 17 years.

Net profit attributable to mother is 196.

800 million, an annual increase of -4.

37%. If the impact of the 17-year transfer of Zhenhua Heavy Industries is excluded, the net profit from continuing operations is considered, with a growth rate of 10.


Cash ratio in the reporting period was 0.

9249, down by 1 every year.

25 units, payout ratio is 0.

7703, up 5 every year.

09 single.

Net cash flow from operating activities 90.

9.8 billion, compared with 427天津夜网 in the same period last year.

4.1 billion, mainly due to the lower receivables turnover rate in 2018 and the large amount of prepayments received for large projects during the same period last year.

Investment suggestion that the company’s overall performance in 2018 was stable and better, but the single-year growth rate in the new years was slightly lower than expected. The replacement of Zhenhua Heavy Industry also caused the company’s overall profit scale to decline.

Therefore, we correspondingly lower the EPS for 2019-2021 to 1.

40, 1.


69 yuan / share (originally 1.


68 yuan / share), corresponding to PE, 9, 8 and 7 times, lowered the target price to 15 yuan (the original target price of 16 yuan), and maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk reminder: rapid replacement of infrastructure investment growth rate, project progress is less than expected