China Merchants Securities: After the development fund is downgraded, who of the three airlines has the most profit?
(1) Introduction of the Civil Aviation Development Fund: The Civil Aviation Development 上海夜网论坛 Fund is a government fund in nature, and the revenue is turned over to the central treasury, which is included in the government fund budget, and is used for special purposes.
The scope of use includes the construction of civil aviation infrastructure; subsidies for cargo aviation, regional aviation, and small and medium-sized civil transport airports; energy conservation and emission reduction of civil aviation; general aviation development; science and education, information research and development, and application of civil aviation; building of safety capabilities and airworthiness certification capabilities;Expenditure, collection of commission fees and other seven aspects.
Specific collection regulations: The Civil Aviation Development Fund began to collect from April 1, 2012. It was established to replace the airport construction fee originally imposed on passengers and the civil aviation infrastructure construction fund imposed on airlines.
The levy on airlines is based on flight route classification, aircraft maximum take-off weight, flight mileage and other standards; the passenger levy is in principle based on the standard of 50 yuan per person for domestic routes and 90 yuan per person for international / regional routes.
The civil aviation development fund payable by air passengers shall be collected by the airline or sales agency when the passenger purchases the air ticket, and the clearing center shall be responsible for the collection and full payment to the central treasury.
（2）三大航预计净利润增厚8-11亿元 由上文可知，当前各航司被征收的民航发展基金被计入公司费用，而代为征收的民航发展基金（由旅客缴纳的）Do not enter the table.
Therefore, the halving of the levy of the Civil Aviation Development Fund on the one hand directly reduces the costs of airline companies and increases profits; on the other hand, if the levy standard is also reduced at the passenger level, it will indirectly reduce the fares paid by passengers (due to the levy on behalf ofWill not enter the table, so in fact the airline’s revenue will not be affected), stimulate the demand for aviation travel, the airline’s profits are thickened or hyperstatic measurement.
At present, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines ‘civil aviation development funds account for about 55% -65% of pre-tax profits, while Spring and Autumn and Auspicious account for about 17%.
According to the disclosure of listed companies, taking 2018 as an example, the expenses of China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines Development Fund were 29.
400 million yuan, 22.
3.5 billion yuan, accounting for 65.5% of pre-tax profit
We estimate that the cost of the Air China Civil Aviation Development Fund will be about 2.5 billion yuan, accounting for about 25% of the pre-tax profit.
The expenses for the Spring and Autumn 2017 and Auspicious Civil Aviation Development Fund were 2.
9.2 billion yuan, 3.
1.5 billion yuan, accounting for 17.7% of profit
69% and 17.
With the civil aviation development fund fee falling by 50%, it is expected that the profit before taxation of China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China will increase by 14.
700 million yuan, 11.
1.8 billion yuan, 12.
500 million yuan, thickened by 1.
4.6 billion yuan, 1.
5.8 billion yuan.
Taking into account the impact of income tax, the net profit of the three major airlines after tax increase is about 8-11 billion yuan, and the spring and autumn & auspicious is about 100 million yuan.
In general, the three factors of aviation are currently resonating forward, welcoming excellent investment opportunities.
1) Civil aviation supply-side reforms superimposed the impact of the 737max air disaster on continued fermentation (new problems in the internal testing of the Boeing 737MAX repair patch), and aviation supply continued to tighten; in the second and third quarters of the season, the marketization reform of superimposed fares has continued to release aviation demand.
2) The fundamental center of oil prices in 19 years is between 50-70 US dollars, which is expected to be less than 18 years.
3) With the slowing pace of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the US dollar index has fallen; trade conflicts have been suspended, market liberalization has increased capital inflows, and the risk of RMB depreciation in 19 years has been reduced.
The latest catalyst: the civil aviation development fund halves the collection, the three major airlines in 19 years are expected to add about 1 billion yuan in profit, combined with our previous expectations, the three major airlines in 19 years profit is expected to reach 9-11 billion yuan (previous forecast profit of about 80-100100 million yuan), the stock price still has room to double.
Risk warnings The policy implementation was not as good as expected, oil prices rose sharply, and the yuan depreciated sharply.